Truck Freight Expected to Grow After Two-Year Decline

After two years of decline, truck freight is set to grow. The American Trucking Association (ATA) expects a 1.6% increase in 2025. By 2035, truck volumes could reach nearly 14 billion tons. These numbers come from the ATA Freight Transportation Forecast, developed with S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Trucking Still Leads Freight Transport

Trucking remains the dominant freight transport method. In 2024, it handled 72.7% of total tonnage and 76.9% of revenue. This trend is expected to continue for the next decade. “Trucking will still move most of the country’s freight,” said ATA chief economist Bob Costello.

Total truck tonnage is projected to grow from 11.27 billion tons in 2024 to 13.99 billion in 2035. Over the same period, revenue could rise from $906 billion to $1.46 trillion, keeping trucking at 76.8% of the freight market.

Recovery Has Been Uneven

The ATA Truck Tonnage Index showed ups and downs throughout 2024. January started with a 3.5% drop, followed by a 4.3% increase in February. March and April saw declines of 2% and 1.2%. Mid-year, the index stabilized with minor losses in June (1.6%) and July (0.3%). August saw a 1.8% jump, but September dropped by 2.1%. October gained 1.2%, but November and December saw declines of nearly 1% and 1.8%, bringing the index to its lowest level since January.

“Weak factory output and private fleet growth are cutting into freight volumes for for-hire carriers,” Costello said.

Industry Outlook for 2025

Other experts predict similar growth. ACT Research forecasts a 1.8% increase in freight demand. Old Dominion Freight Line CEO Marty Freeman is optimistic, saying, “2025 will bring not just growth but prosperity.”

Truckstop’s Carrier Insight Survey found that 94% of carriers expect their situation to improve in 2025. More than half believe it will be “significantly better.” Only 3% plan to leave the industry.

FTR analysts also predict about 1% growth in truck freight volume. “Based on trends, we expect a slight year-over-year increase,” said Avery Vise, VP of trucking at FTR.

Jason Miller, a supply chain professor at Michigan State University, noted that trucking demand in 2025 will depend on government policies, including tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation.